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The Great Obama / McCain Bet

Reform Dem: I like your proposal, but let’s up the ante a bit more. You don’t like to bet, and I sure don’t like to vote for Republicans, so lets do both. I’ll accept your challenge if you’ll accept mine, with the provision that, on election day, the loser lets the winner observe and verify his vote. With media present. The risk of public humiliation will make this so much more fun!

Sounds good. To recap.

We, Reform Dem and The Proletariat, are entering into a bet in regards to the result of the general election on this 7th day of June 2008. Specifically upon who, Obama or McCain, will be the winner of the electoral college in November of 2008.

The Proletariat will post the current probability of McCain or Obama winning the electoral college on the 1st of every month (July through November). Hominidviews will be used to verify the probability of victory for both candidates. If McCain has a probability of winning in excess of 50%, Reform Dem will donate $5 to a non Democratic political campaign (McCain, Nader, Barr, or McKinney). If Obama has a probability of victory over 50%, The Proletariat will donate $5 to the Obama campaign.

In addition to the $5 donation by either Reform Dem or The Proletariat, on the November posting of the electoral college an additional consequence is Reform Dem voting for McCain, or The Proletariat voting for Obama.

Lastly as requested by Reform Dem, the loser of this bet must be accompanied to the voting booth by the winner for verification and humiliation sake. Both Reform Dem and The Proletariat are fully aware that such a bet is in violation of Wisconsin Law and very likely are wagering the ultimate sacrifice in a democracy, their right to vote.


2 responses to “The Great Obama / McCain Bet

  1. Henry, don’t forget the beer. One case, preferably local, based on the election outcome. It’s an old Wisconsin tradition, loser buys. You can bring it to the Obama victory party. It you don’t like the beer idea, I’m also OK with a $50 donation by the loser to a charity of the winner’s choice.

    Just to be clear, the outcome of the vote part of the bet shall be determined by the first Hominid Views election probability analysis posted on or after November 1, 2008. I win if Obama is greater than 50%, you win if McCain is greater than 50%.


  2. Agreed.

    I’ll start saving a little cash each week just in case.

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